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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."