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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.